The annual production numbers are finally in for 2004 in the UK.
Production is the lowest since 1994
Year thousand tonnes
1992 94,251
1993 100,189
1994 126,542
1995 129,894
1996 129,742
1997 128,234
1998 132,633
1999 137,099
2000 126,029
2001 116,678
2002 115,944
2003 106,058
2004 95,416
Not a hint of trouble in 1999. Record production; lots of smiles at the
DTI. 2000 was a shock to many there in the oil industry. I was there and
no one believed me when I told my colleagues in 2000 that the UK had
peaked. Two years of production additions were wiped out in one year by
the decline. Won a wonderful dinner from my boss for a bet we made.
Prediction. This year will probably make the UK production less than
anytime since 1982. The industry really got going in 1978. And of
course, there will still be those who say we have no problem in the oil
world.
I also looked at the Mexican production in light of their announcement
this fall that Cantarell (2.1 million bbl/day) would begin a 14% decline
in 2006. The Mexicans report their production in 3 categories: heavy,
light, and superlight. The figures are thousand barrels per day.
Year total heavy light superlight
1994 2,685 1,270 890 525
1995 2,617 1,220 864 533
1996 2,858 1,371 910 578
1997 3,022 1,567 881 574
1998 3,070 1,659 848 563
1999 2,906 1,563 806 536
2000 3,012 1,774 733 505
2001 3,127 1,997 659 471
2002 3,177 2,167 552 458
2003 3,371 2,419 512 439
2004* 3,398 2,472 792 134
Cantarell is heavy oil and accounts for 85% of the heavy production.
Superlight has fallen off a cliff in 2004; light is variable but down
from peak production. If 85% of the heavy starts a 14% decline in 2006
that means a loss of 294 thousand barrels a day in 2006. This will
place pressure on the North American oil market.
Note the similarity with the UK in 1999. If we lose 2-3 years of
production additions in 2006, the pattern will be quite similar.
Received on Sat Feb 26 14:14:20 2005
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