Predictions

From: Brian Harper (harper.10@osu.edu)
Date: Tue Oct 14 2003 - 16:25:38 EDT

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    Here is a possible prediction to test two competing evolutionary theories.
    IDers are more than welcome to make a prediction based on their theory. The
    two competing theories are adaptationism and structuralism (for lack of a
    better term, perhaps someone knows what name it really goes by). Well known
    examples of the two are Richard Dawkins and Brian Goodwin respectively.

    Suppose we identify some biological structure (morphology) of interest and
    then identify the key geometrical parameters which describe that structure.
    A great example of such a model is available on the web at
    http://members.aol.com/macops/Raup.html . In this case we see shell
    geometry defined in terms of the three parameters W, D, and T.

    Now we need to visualize an n-dimensional theoretical morphospace where n
    is the number of parameters (3 in the example above). This becomes rather
    difficult with three parameters so, to illustrate, lets consider a case
    with only two parameters, x and y. What I describe below is not limited to
    two dimensional spaces.

    A coordinate (specific x and y) in our hypothetical 2-dimensional (2D)
    morphospace represents a specific possibility for the generic shape
    considered. For example, if our generic shape is a rectangle then the
    coordinate (2,3) would be a rectangle of base 2 and height 3. The space is
    theoretical in the sense that no consideration is given, at this point, as
    to whether the structures represented actually occur in nature.

    Now for the first prediction. Find specific examples of the generic shape
    in nature and plot these in the morphospace. The prediction of both
    theories above is that the points will not be uniformly distributed across
    the space. Instead, the points will be concentrated in one or more regions
    of the space. The reason is: (a) (adaptationism) some structures are better
    adapted than others and are thus favored by natural selection or
    (b) (structuralism) developmental (or other physical) constraints make
    some shapes impossible. (c) ID?

    Now comes some really hard work. Using biomechanics (one of my interests)
    assess the "performance" of the structure in relation to some function.
    This must be done in terms of the morphospace parameters (x,y) so that the
    performance (let's call it P(x,y)) can be plotted in the morphospace along
    with the data above.

    Now we have the second prediction. How will the contours of P(x,y) match up
    with plotted points? Adaptationism predicts that the local concentrations
    of observed shapes will be near the regions of local optimums in the
    performance. Structuralism predicts that such a situation would be purely
    coincidental and is not to be expected. ID?

    The above is, of course, a more critical test of adaptationism than
    structuralism. But the structuralist has the opportunity of doing something
    similar, but even more difficult, than the above. They could develop a
    model of the developmental (or other) constraint and show that the observed
    shapes are predicted by that model. This has actually been done for the
    case of spiral phyllotaxis (I've already discussed that in detail in this
    group).



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