From: Glenn Morton (glennmorton@entouch.net)
Date: Wed Jul 02 2003 - 20:35:03 EDT
This week, the papers in the UK are full of stories about a report by the
Institute of Civil Engineers about the next 20 years in UK energy supply.
Predictions are that next year, UK natural gas production will begin its
decline (oil began declining in 1999 and this year will be only 80% of where
it was). By the end of the decade the energy picture will be different from
today. And the problem in the UK will affect us because they will be
competing against us for imported barrels. If anyone reads these, think
about these questions. How do/should Christians behave when the inevitable
shortages develop? On a global scale demand for oil is expected to grow to
110 million bbl/day, a figure most oil industry people think is impossible
to satisfy. Anyway, here is the data.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3035462.stm#table
And Norway reduced its reported reserves by 7% and they are
worried that there are a lot of reserves they won't get. see
http://www.npd.no/English/Aktuelt/Nyheter/ressursrapport_2003_p_melding.htm
For a country to drop its reserves by this much is a shocking event.
Also this from the UK papers
"A golden era of cheap, plentiful fuel will end this year
when North Sea gas production starts to fall, raising the spectre
of higher energy bills, power blackouts and a balance of payments crisis.
"A recent top-level energy conference in Paris agreed that
Britain's reserves of natural gas were likely to be exhausted by
the end of the decade. Norway's North Sea supplies will run out by 2018
"Independent consultant David Fleming, a key speaker at
the conference said: 'Britain's output will halve by 2010.'
"Last year, Britain's surplus on trade in non-oil fuels
stood at [gbp]629 million.
"But last August, the Royal Academy of Engineering warned
that severe winters from 2004 could trigger power blackouts. Now
the UK faces a future of imported energy supplies. It is estimated
the country could have to buy in up to 90 per cent of demand by 2020.
"A [GBP]1 billion gas import terminal is being built near
Milford Haven in Wales by US energy giant Exxon. It is expected to
be the biggest terminal for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the
world. A second storage terminal at Milford Haven is being built
by PetroPlus. Exxon plans to import gas from Qatar in the Middle
East and intends to build the world's largest LNG tankers
--200,000 cubic metres--to handle the vast loads.
"But will dependency on imported energy spell a downturn
for the economy and gloom for the pound?
"'Certainly, all this will come to the UK by ship,' said
one industry expert, and though British Gas has a fleet of LNG
carriers, it is unlikely to benefit as it is a deadly rival of
Exxon, which will almost certainly choose to run its own fleet.
"But most of the North Sea is owned and operated by
multinational companies and, yes, we get the tax revenue but other
income is repatriated overseas.
"We will still get the tax on gas as it hits the national
supply chain, just as the Exchequer does from petrol.'
"It is argued that by biting the bullet and building a
massive gas import terminal, the UK at least recognises that it
will need to buy in energy and preferably from different sources,
so as not to be dependent on any one region. A plan to build a
1,000-mile pipeline to bring gas from northern Russia to Europe is
another example being looked at by both Shell and BP chief
executive Lord Browne.
"In the past six weeks, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US
federal Reserve appeared to acknowledge the British lead when he
referred to America's need to build massive LNG import
terminals---like that being built at Milford Haven--as its
domestic gas prices have soared to record levels this summer.
"Experts reckon the import of energy will be broadly
neutral for the British economy. The pound may fall as the global
investment community comes to terms with the depleting supply of
natural energy. But a lower rate for sterling would benefit the
UK's fast dwindling manufacturing sector and with that could come
jobs and a fresh prosperity." Dan Atkinson, "North Sea Gas is on
the Brink of Running Out," Mail on Sunday (Financial Mail) June
29,2003, p. 6
from a few months ago, similar fears.
http://www.thisismoney.com/20020901/nm52594.html
See http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm for more info.
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