I just read a report by a guy I trust. He isn't always correct, but he is
better than most. In this case, I think he is correct. He is saying that
within six month the natural gas production for the US and Canada will drop
quite a bit, which will bring about those high prices again. His thesis is
quite simple, during the high prices of natural gas which prevailed in the
winter and spring of 2001, drilling for gas soared, but the production
barely budged upwards. When the price droped, drilling plummeted. Thus we
aren't finding new supplies to replace what we deplete. Thus, the natural
decline of gas fields becomes the predominant supply issue. Gas wells today
deplete very rapidly. This will cause a significant drop in supplies in the
near future. Simmons wrote:
"Our firm has just completed an incredibly intensive supply analysis on 53
counties in the
state of Texas. These 53 counties represent 66% of Texasí gas supply. Texas
represents 31% of total U.S. daily gas supply. Based on this study, I fear
that U.S.
natural gas supplies could fall as much as 10% in as little as six months
from now. The
drop could be close to double this amount by the time it bottoms."
We have a lot of gas in storage so a very warm winter could put this off,
but if it does, the winter after that will be especially costly for gas.
The report can be found at:
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/domino/html/research.nsf/0/e2186545187da484862
56bce006dc343/$FILE/Depletion.pdf
glenn
see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
for lots of creation/evolution information
anthropology/geology/paleontology/theology\
personal stories of struggle
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