Hi Dave,
----- Original Message -----
From: <dfsiemensjr@juno.com>
To: <mortongr@flash.net>
Cc: <asa@calvin.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2000 7:50 PM
Subject: Re: Preprogrammed
> > Second, when
> > > people choose, they become predictable by falling into a pattern.
> > This is
> > > why the requirement for randomization turns them to flipping
> > coins,
> > > throwing dice (though there are ways to "educate" both),
> > psuedo-random
> > > number generators, or the IBM tables.
> >
> > If people are so predictable, predict the stock market for the next
> > year.
> > Lets see how accurately you predict the behavior of the people
> > investing in
> > the market. Simple answers like up 5, down 30 will suffice. If you
> > get the
> > numbers to the leftof the decimal correct on the next year, I will
> > gladly
> > stand corrected.
> > >
> This is totally off the point. The stock market is not the area of moral
> decisions. These are individual. The traders make some moral decisions.
> By extension, some trading organizations may be said to act morally or
> immorally, though only illegal actions are penalized. It is theologically
> correct to say that God's final judgment will be on the individuals whose
> decisions produced the corporate actions, not on the corporation. A
> "virtual person" cannot be consigned to hell or welcomed to heaven..
You miss entirely the point. You first said that stock markets weren't done
by intelligent beings now you say that for some reason the lack of moral
decisions here means the gasket won't be produced. Anything with three
choices which moves around a lot will produce the gasket. I am not arguing
the morality of the stock market. I really don't see how I have failed to
communicate on this issue.
>
> Additionally, with the flood of rumors (many false, circulated in an
> attempt to manipulate stock prices), plus the emotional rather than
> rational decisions involved (it is proverbial that the market runs on
> greed and fear), to which may be added complexity, the demand for
> prediction is silly. It's like today requiring a precise weather report
> for Houston for July 4. Yet the weather is accepted as causally
> determined. For that matter, nothing can be more exactly determined than
> the decimal value of pi, yet the sequence of integers passes all known
> tests for randomness.
Listen to what I am saying, not what you want to hear. Ididn't say that one
could predict the market with this. I said I could predict the creation of
the GASKET, THE GASKET by merely using the ups and downs of the market for
its input.
>
>
> > > As for unpredictability, consider a moral person who finds a
> > wallet which
> > > contains identification and some cash. What will he/she (to be
> > > politically correct) do? Anyone have any problem with the
> > prediction?
> > > Does that mean the person lacks free will?
> >
> > Moral people do bad things all the time. That is why you can't
> > predict it.
> > Maybe he just found out he needs a new car.
> >
> I think I mentioned the breaking point. But I find it easier to predict
> certain human actions rather than the weather.
I am predicting the GASKET by use of human input, NOT THE WEATHER.
>
> I know you later said you'd be away from e-mail for a little. I'm sorry I
> did not get to answering your post before you took off. But this should
> be waiting quietly for your return.
This and about 300 other messages :-(
glenn
Foundation, Fall and Flood
Adam, Apes and Anthropology
http://www.flash.net/~mortongr/dmd.htm
Lots of information on creation/evolution
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