Re: Daniel's 70 `weeks' (was How to prove supernaturalism?)

From: bill r wald (billwald@juno.com)
Date: Mon Nov 13 2000 - 12:45:35 EST

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    >>>>
            "It is unlikely that all these events would have converged in the life
            of one man. Mathematicians (Stoner, 108) have calculated the
            probability of sixteen predictions being fulfilled in one man (e.g.,
            Jesus) at 1 in 10^45. That forty-eight predictions might meet in one
            person, the probability is 1 in 10^157. It is almost impossible to
            conceive of a number that large." (Geisler N.L., 1999, p.613).
    <<<<

    This is a gross mis-use of probability. It is meaningless to talk about
    the probability of historical events. If an event occurs then all you
    can say is that it happened so the "probability" was 100%. I would like
    to hear from a real mathematician about this.

    Also, it is impossible to produce data. For example, what were the odds
    that a Jewish trouble maker would be crucified by the Romans? Lots higher
    than for being hit by a bus (chariot). The Romans crucified tens of
    thousands over the years.

    I have taken at least one course where Geisler was used as the class
    text. I was not impressed with his logic and writing.

    billwald@juno.com

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