Re: Dembski's universal small probability bound

From: Wesley R. Elsberry (welsberr@inia.cls.org)
Date: Tue Jun 20 2000 - 11:51:00 EDT

  • Next message: Richard Wein: "Re: Dembski's universal small probability bound"

    Richard Wein wrote:

    WRE>This does not mean that we actually believe it to be due to
    WRE>chance, or that we consider the chance hypothesis sufficient
    WRE>to the task. But like other forms of statistical inference,
    WRE>chance gives us a null hypothesis to perhaps reject.
     
    RW>But you can't just calculate the probability of an event "as
    RW>if it were due to chance". You need to assume a chance
    RW>hypothesis. For example, the probability of rolling a 6 with a
    RW>die takes a different value if I assume the die is fair than
    RW>if I assume the die is biased in a particular way.

    In the case of testing a die for fairness, the relevant chance
    hypothesis is that each possible outcome is equiprobable.
    This is exactly how we do go about testing the fairness of
    die, by detecting whether actual rolls of the die
    significantly differ from our expectations of equiprobability.

    IIRC, where Dembski does give examples of chance hypotheses in
    TDI, they clearly are premised upon equiprobability of
    outcomes.

    I just noticed something that looks like an inconsistency in
    terminology in TDI and Dembski's other essays.

    [Quote]

    For J to be constructible by means of logical connectives from
    the same items of information out of which I is constructed is
    what we mean by saying I <i>generates</i> J, or equivalently, J is
    <i>generated</i> by I.

    [End Quote - WA Dembski, TDI, p. 149]

    In "Design as a theory of information" and in later discussion
    of evolutionary computation, Dembski specifically denies the use
    of "generated" or "generation" to cover the concept that a logical
    transformation of prior information results in a different
    arrangement of information afterwards.

    Wesley



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