Re: Robots Reclaim the Future

Stephen E. Jones (sejones@iinet.net.au)
Fri, 12 Nov 1999 06:17:25 +0800

Reflectorites

Here is a Yahoo story about robots which, reading between the lines,
tells that all the hype about arrtificial intelligence has not transpired.

Even Marvin ("the mind is a computer made of meat") Minsky seems
subdued and all he can do is issue a promissory note on the Bank of
Materialism:

"Someday we'll find a way to make them smart and then they'll very quickly
become smarter than us," said Marvin Minsky, another MIT professor who
is often called the father of artificial intelligence. "What happens then is
anyone's guess."

Steve

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http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19991111/sc/tech_robots_2.html

Yahoo! News Science Headlines

Thursday November 11 2:55 AM ET
Robots Reclaim the Future
By Brad Liston

ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) - Once robots were the wave of the future, not
only in science fiction but in industry, especially after the first utilitarian
drones -- tireless and precise, cost-effective and uncomplaining -- arrived
on the floors of automobile plants.

That was decades ago. Later, the future arrived, but robots remained on
the shop floor, dullards that never evolved into the perfect servants who, as
imagined by science fiction writers such as Isaac Asimov and Ray
Bradbury, would interact with ordinary people throughout the day -- at
home, while commuting or shopping, and in a variety of workplace
settings.

Instead, the Internet became the herald of a new age and robots seemed
like a relic of the industrial past.

"In the early '80s there were some unrealistic expectations. The industry
overestimated what a robot could do," said Donald Vincent, executive vice
president of the Robotic Industries Association, which hosted a recent
seminar in Orlando. "For the most part a robot today is still a machine that
mounts to the floor, but the industrial uses are growing. Robots aren't just
in the automobile industry anymore."

Probably 75 percent of the robots in the United States 10 years ago were in
auto plants. Today, with about 95,000 robots at work, that has shrunk to
50 percent, and Vincent predicts that in another decade car-making will
account for as little as 30 percent of robot use.

Robots Where You Expected Them -- In 10 Years

Today's growth fields for robots are electronics and pharmaceuticals. And
tomorrow? Look for robots right where you always expected them to be.

In 10 years, the butcher who cuts your steak could be a robot. The baker
who decorates your wedding cake -- a robot. And the candlestick maker?
Forget about it.

Your heart surgeon could also be a robot. At least one company, Computer
Motion, is designing patient pods, operating tables with laser-wielding
robot arms controlled by a surgeon calling the shots from a control
console.

A number of factors are driving this robot renaissance, the experts say. The
most important is the same thing that pushed the Internet to the center of
world attention: software.

For years, every company in the field essentially designed its own
proprietary operating system for its robots, a time-consuming and
inefficient practice that slowed the development of new products. Now the
trend is toward common operating systems like Windows NT, made by
Microsoft Corp (Nasdaq:MSFT - news).

"Windows may not be perfect but it works, it's flexible. There are plenty of
experienced users," said Everette Phillips, who manages advanced
manufacturing technologies for Seiko Instruments USA.

Software advancements also give potential robotics users the ability to test
their plans in virtual reality before investing millions in robots, adding to
customer confidence.

Knives For Robot Butchers

Koorosh Khodabandehloo, a robotics consultant who has run pilot
programs in the European meat industry, needed that kind of simulation to
decide whether robot butchers would be better armed with knives, lasers or
water jets. Investment would have been prohibitive had he picked the
wrong tool.

"We settled on knives and circular saws," he said. "A knife has the
advantage of being a manipulating tool as well as a cutting tool."

The meat industry is just one example of the non-traditional areas where
robotics is expected to grow.

In Europe, meat packing has the second highest accident rate next to
construction, Khodabandehloo said. And butchers are expected to work
long periods in cold storage areas.

"Labor is hard to get," he said. "Turnover is high. Often it takes two
months to train someone who finds the work intolerable after six months.
Robots don't care."

Labor shortages also affect shopping malls, so it may not be long before
the clerk at your local music store will be a robot who can complete a
credit card transaction, bag your CDs and tell you to have a nice day.

Meanwhile, work continues in other areas such as robot mobility and
artificial intelligence. Advances are expected in both.

"The robot we see right now probably won't be called a robot 30 years
from now," said Kazuhiko Kawamura, head of the Intelligent Robotics
Laboratory at Vanderbilt University.

He and other experts predict the development of smarter, more mobile
versions that could be called humanoid robots, if not for their looks at least
for their ability to interact with humans. One firm, HelpMate Robotics Inc
(OTC BB:HELP.OB - news)., is working on a line of household robots
that are two-armed, sensate and articulate servant-companions for the
elderly.

But what about truly humanoid robots, androids like Data from Star Trek
or, at least, Robbie the Robot from "Forbidden Planet," the classic sci-fi
film?

"We don't want robots we'll hate or fall in love with. We already have
enough trouble relating to other people," said John McCarthy, a pioneer in
artificial intelligence and co-founder of the MIT Artificial Intelligence
Laboratory. "But I don't see why we can't program them to be ethical --
maybe more ethical than we are."

"Someday we'll find a way to make them smart and then they'll very quickly
become smarter than us," said Marvin Minsky, another MIT professor who
is often called the father of artificial intelligence.

"What happens then is anyone's guess."

[...]

Copyright (c) 1996-1999 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
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"Another reason that scientists are so prone to throw the baby out with the
bath water is that science itself, as I have suggested, is a religion. The
neophyte scientist, recently come or converted to the world view of
science, can be every bit as fanatical as a Christian crusader or a soldier of
Allah...Another major reason that scientists are prone to throw the baby
out with the bath water is that they do not see the baby. Many scientists
simply do not look at the evidence of the reality of God. They suffer from a
kind of tunnel vision, a psychologically self-imposed psychological set of
blinders which prevents them from turning their attention to the realm of
the spirit." (Peck M.S, "The Road Less Travelled: A New Psychology of
Love, Traditional Values and Spiritual Growth", [1978], Arrow: London,
1990, p241)
Stephen E. Jones | sejones@iinet.net.au | http://www.iinet.net.au/~sejones
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