Re: Irreducible Complexity

Brian D Harper (bharper@postbox.acs.ohio-state.edu)
Thu, 10 Sep 1998 16:05:01 -0400

At 11:02 AM 9/10/98 -0700, Joseph wrote:
>Tim:
>
> Please stick with the bacterial flagellum. Start with C,H,O and N.
>What are the chances of arriving at one amino acid? Twenty different
>amino acids? Then 150 of those 20 in the right sequence to form one of
>the needed proteins for the flagellum, then enough of them to form one
>of the structures, e.g. the filament. What is the probability so far?
> Then put the right molecules together to form the rod, the hook, the
>L ring bushing, the P ring bushing, the stator studs, the stator C ring,
>the rotor S ring, the rotor M ring, the inner plasma membrane, the
>peptidoglycan layer and the outer membrane. What is the probability so
>far?
> Does this come close to a billion to one or is it more like 10^90 as
>Yockey estimated?

Uh, Joseph, Yockey estimated no such thing. What he estimated was
that there were about 10^90 functionally equivalent iso-1-cytochrome c
molecules. A number somewhat larger than your one wouldn't you
say?

BTW, no one proposes that bacterial flagellum arise by chance, so
your probability calculation is totally eroneous.

> I prefer L in shirts but I have no use for a dozen let alone a
>billion. If you can find financing, the world economy will have a
>prosperous 21st century.
> A billion to one is Dawkins' estimate for the spontaneous generation of
>a cell from the primordial soup (see The Blind Watchmaker).
> Scientists don't bet on a cause unless the odds are 20+ to one in their
>favor. What do you, Tim, call someone who bets when it is 10^90 to one
>or even only 1 billion to one against him?

Brian Harper
Associate Professor
Applied Mechanics
The Ohio State University

"It appears to me that this author is asking
much less than what you are refusing to answer"
-- Galileo (as Simplicio in _The Dialogue_)