End of world is nigh impossible to predict

Bill Hamilton (hamilton@predator.cs.gmr.com)
Wed, 23 Oct 1996 13:15:04 -0400

End of world is nigh impossible to predict
By Toby Harnden and Sebastian Berger

THE END of the world, predicted by a 17th-century Irish archbishop to take
place at 6pm on Oct 22, 1996, was postponed yesterday as academics debated
just how long Creation had left.

After studying the stars and genealogical tables from the Old Testament,
James Ussher, Archbishop of Armagh from 1625 to 1656, said the beginning of
time "fell upon the entrance of the night preceding the 23rd day of Octob
in the year of the Julian calendar, 710". Calculating that 710 in the
Julian calendar equated to 4004BC, he announced that the world would end,
according to Jewish tradition, 6,000 years later at 6pm yesterday.

Richard Dawkins, Professor of the Public Understanding of Science at Oxford
University, said: "What staggers me about Archbishop Ussher's statement is
not that he was wrong - so was everybody else in his time - but that he was
wrong with such confident and ludicrous precision."

Ridicule should be postponed for a while, however. A 13-day difference
between the Julian and Gregorian calendar, which was adopted in the 18th
century, means Nov 4 could be the day in question. And Prof Mark Bailey, of
Armagh observatory, points out we may be a year early. If one calculates
that Ussher's chronology runs from 1BC to 1AD with no year zero, then the
6,000 years will not be up for another year, he said.

Bill Hamilton
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
William E. Hamilton, Jr, Ph.D. | Staff Research Engineer
Chassis and Vehicle Systems | General Motors R&D Center | Warren, MI
810 986 1474 (voice) | 810 986 3003 (FAX) | whamilto@mich.com (home email)