On Mon, 22 Apr 1996 18:27:16 -0500 (EST) you wrote:
LH>ABSTRACT: When should we consider an improbable event to be an
>intervention event?
>
>Steve Jones has mentioned several times the "unusual moon hypothesis" put
>forward by Hugh Ross. I have a question for Steve and anyone else who is
>interested. I think the answers to this question could be very relevant
>to one's opinions on evolution.
>
>Let us suppose that a relatively large moon (causing significant tidal
>action) really is necessary for life to exist stably on earth. Let us
>also assume that this large moon must be formed by a meteor impact during
>a certain time-window of planetary formation, in order to get the oceans
>and atmosphere to be "just right" for life. (*1*) Such an event would be
>very improbable for any particular planetary system.
>
> --In that case, should we interpret the formation of our earth/
> moon system as an example of divine intervention in history?
>
>To me, the answer to this question depends somewhat on the actual
>improbability. Suppose we had the empirical knowledge and computing power
>to calculate the probability for a "life-sustaining" planet/moon system to
>form.
>
>If the improbability came out to be 10^50, much greater than the number of
>stars in the universe, I would be inclined to interpret the formation of
>our earth/moon system an example of "divine intervention" --- a miraculous
>event using natural mechanisms as secondary causes. (This fact would also
>be useful (though not conclusive) apologetically for theism.)
If the probability of: 1. such a large moon being formed; 2. at the
right time; 3. at the just right distance from the Earth from an
asteroid impact; 4. blasting away the old poisonous atmosphere and 5.
setting the Earth on its tilt was greater that 10^50 (which according
to Borel's Law means it will never happen) then that is an absolute
*certainty* that it happened by intelligent design.
If it can be shown that such a moon was necessary for life (or at
least intelligent life) then it would also mean that we are alone.
LH>On the other hand, if the improbability came out to be 10^10 (and
assuming
>that we find no more than approximately 10 such planet/moon systems in our
>galaxy of 10^11 stars), my interpretation would be different. In that
>case, I would interpret the formation of our particular earth/moon system
>as non-miraculous, an "ordinary" event falling within God's regular
>providential oversight over all of creation --- even though this
>particular improbable event was essential for our particular history.(*2*)
I don't know at what point I would regard it as an "ordinary"
providential event. But clearly, the less improbable it is, the more
likely it was not a supernatural event:
"The more statistically improbable a thing is, the less can we believe
that it just happened by blind chance." (Dawkins R., "The Necessity
of Darwinism, New Scientist, 15 April 1982, p130)
>Steve, do you have a different perspective? What about the rest of you?
>Do any theologians have an answer?
>
>(*1*) I personally doubt that such an improbable moon is _necessary_ for
>life; however, I don't discount that it might be.
>
>(*2*) Of course, "providence" involves more than just sustaining natural
>law; it includes the possibility that any particular "natural" event (or
>even, every natural event) was divinely ordained.
The just-right formation of the earth-moon system, added to all the
other improbabilities to have the just-right universe we have (as set
out in Hugh Ross' writings), then the evidence for design is indeed
overwhelming, as even some non-theists like Davies acknowledge:
"[There] is for me powerful evidence that there is something going on
behind it all.... It seems as though somebody has fine-tuned nature's
numbers to make the Universe.... The impression of design is
overwhelming." (Paul Davies, The Cosmic Blueprint (New York:
Simon & Schuster, 1988), page 203, in Ross H., "The Creator and the
Cosmos", NavPress: Colorado, 1993, p114)
But even without such sophisticated calculations (whether it was 10^10
or 10^50, etc), all men know in their hearts that there is a Creator
(Rom 1:1-18). Ross' arguments just give that knowledge a scientific
form.
God bless.
Steve
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