improbable == intervention ??

lhaarsma@OPAL.TUFTS.EDU
Mon, 22 Apr 1996 18:27:16 -0500 (EST)

ABSTRACT: When should we consider an improbable event to be an
intervention event?

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Steve Jones has mentioned several times the "unusual moon hypothesis" put
forward by Hugh Ross. I have a question for Steve and anyone else who is
interested. I think the answers to this question could be very relevant
to one's opinions on evolution.

Let us suppose that a relatively large moon (causing significant tidal
action) really is necessary for life to exist stably on earth. Let us
also assume that this large moon must be formed by a meteor impact during
a certain time-window of planetary formation, in order to get the oceans
and atmosphere to be "just right" for life. (*1*) Such an event would be
very improbable for any particular planetary system.

--In that case, should we interpret the formation of our earth/
moon system as an example of divine intervention in history?

To me, the answer to this question depends somewhat on the actual
improbability. Suppose we had the empirical knowledge and computing power
to calculate the probability for a "life-sustaining" planet/moon system to
form.

If the improbability came out to be 10^50, much greater than the number of
stars in the universe, I would be inclined to interpret the formation of
our earth/moon system an example of "divine intervention" --- a miraculous
event using natural mechanisms as secondary causes. (This fact would also
be useful (though not conclusive) apologetically for theism.)

On the other hand, if the improbability came out to be 10^10 (and assuming
that we find no more than approximately 10 such planet/moon systems in our
galaxy of 10^11 stars), my interpretation would be different. In that
case, I would interpret the formation of our particular earth/moon system
as non-miraculous, an "ordinary" event falling within God's regular
providential oversight over all of creation --- even though this
particular improbable event was essential for our particular history.(*2*)

Steve, do you have a different perspective? What about the rest of you?
Do any theologians have an answer?

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(*1*) I personally doubt that such an improbable moon is _necessary_ for
life; however, I don't discount that it might be.

(*2*) Of course, "providence" involves more than just sustaining natural
law; it includes the possibility that any particular "natural" event (or
even, every natural event) was divinely ordained.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I try to make everyone's day a little more surreal. | Loren Haarsma
--Calvin (_Calvin_and_Hobbes_) | lhaarsma@opal.tufts.edu