>> Shapiro first cites the results of Fred Hoyle and N.C. Wickramsinghe,
>> who estimated the odds of spontaneous generation of a living bacterium
>> at 10^40,000 to 1 and that was after VERY generous allowances were made
>> (like assuming that the primordial soup consisted of homochiralic amino
>> acids, etc.) Shapiro then cites Morowitz who made estimates based on
>> more realistic conditions (as if 1 in 10^40,000 wasn't bad enough):
>> "A more realistic estimate has been made by Harold Morowitz, a Yale
>> University physicist. He has calculated the odds for the following case:
>> <Next paragraph outline assumptions in his estimation.>
>> The answer computed by Morowitz reduces the odds of Hoyle to utter
>> insignificance: 1 chance in 10^100,000,000,000....This number is so
>> large that to write it in conventional form we would require several
>> hundred thousand blank books. We would enter a '1' on the first page
>> of the first book, and then fill it, and the remainder of the books, with
>> zeros....
I think the usual response to this argument is that this is not a
calculation of the probability that life could arise by chance. It is
*the odds of spontaneous generation of a living bacterium*. Scientists
who accept a naturalistic origin of life would mostly say that the above
figure is irrelevant because it is not how they believe life began. I
think they would argue that there were a number of intermediate steps
between raw amino acids and a complete bacteria (although the details of
these steps is largely unknown).
-- Jim Foley Symbios Logic, Fort CollinsJim.Foley@symbios.com (303) 223-5100 x9765* 1st 1.11 #4955 * "I am Homer of Borg! Prepare to be...OOooooo! Donuts!!!"