From: Kenneth Piers (Pier@calvin.edu)
Date: Sun Nov 09 2003 - 09:17:46 EST
REPLY: Prof. Brown raises good questions - is there any connection between oil
depletion and Christian belief? For the past two years I have been teaching an
interdisciplinary science core course under the theme of Energy: Resources, Use
and Stewardship
In this class I have had occasion to investigate quite thoroughly the issue of
oil supply. Glenn Morton has been addressing this issue for a number of years.
Even though I am not a petroleum expert as he is, my reading of what is in the
public domain suggests that he is quite correct to warn that world oil
production is likely to peak within the next decade - perhaps within the
current decade. Even surprising discoveries of large new oil reserves will not
delay the arrival of a peak in world oil production by very much - and no such
surprises seem to be in view.
And the situation for North American natural gas supply may be even more
bleak. Domestic supplies of this resource are in decline and easy access to
more plentiful supplies of natural gas (say from Russia or other overseas
sources) will require an immense investment in liquified natural gas (LNG)
technologies - hardly any of which are on hand currently.
So how do I connect this to Christian belief? I believe - and I challenge my
students to think on these issues - that North American Christians carry a
special burden when it comes to energy supply and use issues.
The US is by far the largest user of oil (about 7 billion barrels per year or
25% of the world production) and our per-capita consumption of oil - about 25
barrels of oil per person per year - dwarfs that of the world average per
capita consumption - less than 5 barrels of oil per person per year. In many
developing countries oil consumption per capita is less than 1 barrel per
person per year.
In the future, as oil production becomes constrained there will be increasing
competition for the oil remaining. We are likely to continue to see the Middle
East as "ground zero" for conflicts involving oil. The US has already stated
that access to oil is a matter of vital national security. These considerations
raise serious ethical questions in mind. Some of these include:
1. Does the US need for oil justify military action in nations where oil is
available for export?
2. Is it any accident that the US has a significant presence in every Middle
Eastern oil-producing nation with the exception of Iran - towards whom we have
made some not-so-friendly overtures recently. Is it possible to justify such a
presence on any kind of Christian moral or ethical principles?
3. Is there a moral issue involved when the US demands such a large fraction
of the world's oil production?
4. Does the largely materialistic/consumptive lifestyle pursued by most
Americans and promoted by business and government alike justify the enormous
demand we make for an increasingly scarce energy resource?
5. Are there alternative lifestyles and energy systems that are friendlier
toward the natural environment and toward the other nations with whom we share
this planet that can be founded on the basis of a Christian ethic and world
view?
6. What are our moral duties toward developing nations in an era where the
world's key energy resource appears to be reaching peak production. Should it
simply be business as usual?
7. What are our duties as Christians toward our own nation at this time,
especially since our government's main response to the impending energy crisis
appears directed toward securing access to oil that is already known to exist
in the world and to promote a domestic energy policy which focuses mainly on
further exploration for oil and natural gas - very little of which is likely to
be found in territory currently controlled by the US?
These are only some of the ethical issues that come to mind as we move toward
the inevitable peak in world oil production. I can scarcely think of a
practical issue with greater import for all of the world's nations but
especially for those of us who live in a nation whose economy is so largely
driven by oil and natural gas These two resources currently provide over 60% of
our primary energy.
respectfully,
ken piers
>>> gordon brown <gbrown@euclid.colorado.edu> 11/6/2003 10:55:46 AM >>>
This is interesting, important, and informative, and I think it is good
for me to know about it, but I don't see any mention of Christian faith,
which is supposed to be a criterion for posts to this forum. Ken Touryan,
in his talk at this year's annual meeting, indicated that the energy issue
should be a focus of the ASA in the upcoming years. Perhaps someone could
show us how to make the connection.
Gordon Brown
Department of Mathematics
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309-0395
On Tue, 4 Nov 2003, Glenn Morton wrote:
> I am not currently subscribed, but thought this might be of some interest.
> The August production from the United Kingdom fell to its lowest level
since
> somewhere around 1992. If the 7.992 million tonnes of oil produced in
> August were continued for a year, it, 96 million tonnes, would only be
> slightly greater than the 1992 production. The UK illustrates how rapidly
> depletion affects production. Up until 1999 everything looked like roses.
> The production was skyrocketing:
> year barrels
> 1997 128,234,000
> 1998 132,633,000
> 1999 137,099,000
>
> But then all the factors which affect production came to effect and the
> decline was very rapid:
>
>
> 2000 126,029,000
> 2001 117,396,000
> 2002 115,941,000
> 2003 est 108,000,000
>
> The production from December of last year has been almost on steady
decline:
> 2002 December 10,593,000
> 2003 January 9,879,000
> 2003 February 9,072,000
> 2003 March 9,873,000
> 2003 April 8,968,000
> 2003 May 8,574,000
> 2003 June 8,158,000
> 2003 July 8,903,000
> 2003 August 7,992,000
>
> Norway, another major world producer is also showing its signs of age. Th
> production is as follows:
>
> 1998 168 million cubic meters
> 1999 168 million cubic meters
> 2000 181 million cubic meters
>
> Up until that point there was no sign of trouble. But the years since 2000
> have shown a different story
>
> 2001 180 million cubic meters
> 2002 173 million cubic meters
> 2003 165 million cubic meters estimated
>
> The big hope for new production in the world is in West Africa and Central
> Asia. West Africa will largely be replacing production lost from the North
> Sea and Central Asia is going to take a long time to get the oil to market
> and it will be pipeline capacity constricted. All of this is more evidence
> that the world is on the edge of a major energy crisis.
>
> For more info see:
> http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Oilcrisis.htm
>
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