RE: Oil and Gas Journal--Peak World Oil production as early as 2006

From: Shuan Rose (shuanr@boo.net)
Date: Fri Aug 23 2002 - 10:35:49 EDT

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            I think America's plan appears to be to conquer Iraq and use
    its oil....
    Just kidding, I hope! Hope the FBI isn't listening, but there are two large
    men in suits at the door and they seem insistent. Check back with you later

    Cheers,
    Shuan

    -----Original Message-----
    From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu]On
    Behalf Of Glenn Morton
    Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:32 AM
    To: asa@calvin.edu
    Subject: Oil and Gas Journal--Peak World Oil production as early as 2006

    Today's Oil and Gas Journal web page has an editorial article written by the
    editors of the O&G Journal which predicts the peak of global oil production
    somewhere between 2006 and 2016. The article begins:

    "HOUSTON, Aug. 12 -- The world is drawing down its oil reserves at an
    unprecedented rate, with supplies likely to be constrained by global
    production capacity by 2010, "even assuming no growth in demand," said
    analysts at Douglas-Westwood Ltd., an energy industry consulting firm based
    in Canterbury, England. "
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&
    SubSection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=152444&PUBLICATION_ID=7&VERSION_NUM=1

    It goes on:
    "A 1% annual growth in world demand for oil could cause global crude
    production to peak at 83 million b/d in 2016, said Douglas-Westwood
    analysts. A 2% growth in demand could trigger a production peak of 87
    million b/d by 2011, while 3% growth would move that production peak to as
    early as 2006, they said. "
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&
    SubSection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=152444&PUBLICATION_ID=7&VERSION_NUM=1

    Given historic growth in oil demand of 1.5% or so, we can probably expect
    the peak to be around 2012, merely 10 years.

    In another article inside the Journal another bleak outlook is provided of
    the growing deficit between what we are finding and what we are pumping out
    of the ground. The article says:

    "The Infield Systems database shows that, over the past 5 years, some 812
    offshore oil and gas fields have been bought on stream worldwide with
    estimated reserves totalling 51.5 billion boe. " Roger Knight and John
    Westwood,
    "Special Report: Looking at Offshore Europe prospects in a global context",
    Oil and Gas Journal, Aug 19, 2002,
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&ARTICLE
    _ID=152257&x=y

    BOE is barrels of oil equivalent. Only 53% of the above is oil. Thus we
    found only 27 billion barrels of oil over the past 5 years! Twenty-seven
    billion barrels sounds really good for discovery. In that same five year
    period the world pumped 133 billion barrels out of the ground. We are in a
    losing situation. One field found in Kazakhstan in the late 1990s was
    claimed to be a 50 billion barrel field. The article points out that it is
    now considered to be only an 8-10 billion barrel field. Even an Enron
    accountant should know that replacing only 1 in every 5 barrels pumped out
    of the ground means that oil is running out.

    Of the area I work, the North Sea, the article notes:
    "In short, the message is that while offshore activity is set to
    increase in much of the rest of the world, the North Sea is now facing
    decline. One result is that the major operators have already voted with
    their feet and are investing an increasing proportion of their development
    dollars outside Europe in new, usually deepwater, areas of the world. "
    Roger Knight and John Westwood,
    "Special Report: Looking at Offshore Europe prospects in a global context",
    Oil and Gas Journal, Aug 19, 2002,
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&ARTICLE
    _ID=152257&x=y

    The average prospect size today is only 31 million barrels of oil
    equivalent. This is hardly enough to pay for development. The future of the
    global economy depends upon energy and the future of energy seems bleak.
    Massive investments are required to overcome the coming problem. But the
    problem is, no one in political power is awake to the problem.

    glenn

    see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
    for lots of creation/evolution information
    anthropology/geology/paleontology/theology\
    personal stories of struggle



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