Hi Jack,
For the UK, it is predicted that within 3 years they will be a net importer
of natural gas. They already have the gas interconnector to Norway ready to
go. Eventually the UK and Europe will depend upon Algeria and Russia for
their supplies of natural gas. Expect there to be less close ties to the
US.
I don't know the 2001 oil consumption figure for the UK but in 1998, they
consumed 1.78 million bbl/day. Even if that rate had remained constant, the
UK is now producing only 2.2 million bbl/day. If we continue with a 15%
decline rate, we will be importing oil before I come back to the States in a
year and a half.
The implications of this are that the taxes collected on this oil will be in
serious decline putting pressure on social services. I have a friend whose
husband is an economist over here and he says that this is the last
generation of Brits who will have the social net that they have. However,
the British government gets $96 dollars per barrel in taxes off of oil (not
just UK oil). This will have to rise to make up the extra taxes they are
able to collect from the North Sea.
Jobs will decrease in the oil industry so Scotland will feel that pinch,
especially Aberdeen. They will have to find new industries to live off of.
Fishing is practically dead and farming in this country is not very
lucrative.
Once again, I would point people to my web page
http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/Future_oil_supply.htm for a fuller
discussion of the implications of running out of oil.
-----Original Message-----
From: Jack Haas [mailto:haasJ@mediaone.net]
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 11:38 PM
To: glenn.morton@btinternet.com; asa@calvin.edu
Subject: Re: tidbits on oil
Glenn,
Do you have any comment on the economic effect on the UK of the
continuing decrease in oil production that you report?
Jack Haas
-------Original Message-------
From: Glenn Morton
Date: Saturday, January 19, 2002 06:54:27
To: Asa@Calvin. Edu
Subject: tidbits on oil
While the current recession, fear of flying and a relatively warm
winter
have drastically dropped the demand for oil, the long term picture
still
does not look great. Opec's reserves as a percentage of world
reserves
continues to climb. Reserves are the amount of producible oil still
in the
ground. Here is the data
1980 Opec had 60% of world reserves
1990 Opec had 76% of world reserves
2001 Opec has 79% of world reserves
They are growing because the rest of the world is pumping out their
reserves
as is happening in the UK. The Guardian this week wrote:
“The drop in crude output for the second year running confirms that
Britain
as an oil nation reached its peak in 1999 when it produced 2.8 m
barrels a
day. Output fell to 2.6 m barrels in 2000 and has plunged a
precipitous 15%
to 2.2 m over the last 12 months.” “Buzzard’s boost,” The Guardian
Jan 18,
2002, p. 23
.
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