>At the first sight of the failure of gradualism, Gould thought of punctuated
>equilibrium. In physics that is called phenomenology not theory. I have no
>objections against good phenomenology but I think one should be careful in
>the usage of the term "theory."
Punctuated equilibrium was an extension of population biology theory. It
was an attempt to predict (or postdict) the evolutionary patterns generated
in geologic time by the process of allopatric speciation. It was not an ad
hoc proposal.
Regaring the claim that historical sciences are not predictive -- As I
think I have stated several times in various ways, evolution like other
historical sciences generates predictions. I make predictions all the time
in my research. I predict what I will find in an outcrop I have not yet
visited, or what analytical values a chemical analysis of a particular
sample will yield. If I am wrong then I must abandon or modify my theory,
if not my confidence in my proposal is strengthened. This process is not
fundamentally different than that in any science. Its just that the
experiments have already been run (historical events and processess in
Earth history), and the data has already been obtained and stored (the
geologic record). But I am as blind to newly obtained geologic data as a
chemist is to the results of his experiments.
Keith
Keith B. Miller
Department of Geology
Kansas State University
Manhattan, KS 66506
kbmill@ksu.ksu.edu
http://www-personal.ksu.edu/~kbmill/